All About Cars
I'm no soothsayer but I will have a stab at what I think will be happening on the automotive landscape next year. Rather than evaluate by brand, I thought I would look at some countries. USA: The big three look vulnerable. 1 but Toyota will win that one, either in '07 or '08. Ford and Chrysler are not well. Expect falling sales as they strive to make money. Japan: Getting stronger. It's hard to say something negative here. Toyota has hit a wall in Europe but they are winning everywhere else so it's hardly noticeable. Basically the success seems driven by a reputation for reliability and reasonable value for money. Expect more good news for Nipponese manufacturers in '08. Germany: Much the same as Japan but being achieved for slightly different reasons. They don't offer value for money and VW struggles to be a big player outside Europe for that reason.
Ford Mustang - America's top selling pony car once again has some competition in the form of the Dodge Challenger and the Chevrolet Camaro. Ford F-150 - Introduced in Fall 2008 as a 2009 model, the F Series pickup trucks are some of the most profitable vehicles sold by the automaker. Fortunately, gas prices have plummeted over the past several months, stoking demand for the perennial pickup truck segment favorite. Expect the award winning F-150 to continue to sell well as long as gas prices remain low. Lincoln MKT - Just a few years ago, the Lincoln brand was basically dead in the water. At one time Lincoln competed with Cadillac for luxury car supremacy, but Ford neglected the brand in favor of its many foreign luxury makes including Aston Martin, Jaguar, Land Rover and Volvo. With only Volvo still around (and on the auction block) Ford has been pouring resources into Lincoln and has introduced several worthy models including the MKZ and its big MKS sedan. This summer, the MKT crossover will find its way to Lincoln, a state of the art beauty that will help the bolster the brand's image once again just the right vehicle to compete against the Cadillac SRX. A wild card in Ford's recovery effort for 2009 are the fortunes of General Motors and Chrysler. Should either automaker file for bankruptcy, that move could impact suppliers, the same companies who provide key parts for Ford. The best laid plans of Ford could be scuttled should its competitors fail, something Ford doesn't want to see especially under these circumstances.
The MAVEN aeronomy and upper atmosphere Scout mission is currently scheduled to follow MSL in 2013. However, its schedule and even continuation may be in doubt if its funding becomes required to enable the completion of MSL. Based on past mission funding profiles, I expect that MAVEN鈥檚 peak funding years are 2011 and 2012, too late to provide a piggy bank to directly fund the MSL overruns. For the rest of this post, I will assume that MAVEN will fly on schedule. The highest priority follow on mission (and has been for at least 20 years) would be a Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission. I don鈥檛 think this mission is likely to fly before the late 2020s (the desire is for the early to mid 2020s). The cost and technology development make this mission, in my opinion, unlikely in the nearer timeframe. It would also be difficult to develop the proposed outer planets Flagship mission (destination Jupiter/Europa or Saturn/Titan) in parallel. The rest of this post, therefore, will focus on the other three missions that MATT has identified. Even without MSR, this is an ambitious, varied, and robust set of missions for future exploration of Mars. MATT has spent considerable time thinking about the sequence of the missions. From a science point of view, flying MSO in 2016 makes sense. MATT recommends the MPR rover ahead MSO to ensure that JPL鈥檚 rover team remains intact. MSO needs to fly before NET both to provide data relay (the small NET landers presumably would not have high bandwidth direct to Earth communication capabilities) and global climate measurements to put NET鈥檚 meteorological measurements in context. Should MSR be able to fly in the early 2020鈥檚 MATT recommends that NET follow MSR.
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We'll be hearing about high U.S. May sales data is released on Friday, June 1. Before those numbers are released, however, it's worth finding a bit of luxury automobile sales context from the data already released this year. It's starting to seem like it's been a long time since "Japanese luxury" equated exclusively with the Toyota Cressida. Lexus, Acura, and Infiniti are well-known brands in North America and, particularly in the case of Lexus, becoming more famous across the globe. Toyota's luxury brand ranks as the third-best-selling premium brand in America so far this year, 23,667 sales ahead of Honda's premium division, Acura. Infiniti trails Acura by 9631 units, slotting in behind Audi and Cadillac, two brands which don't sell with quite the same frequency as Acura. Lexus sales are up less than 3% this year. Acura is up by just eight units. And Infiniti is down 3.6%. The overall new vehicle market has improved by 10.3%. It's not just mainstream brands that are reporting major gains. The three most popular Japanese luxury vehicles - sales figures for which are posted after the jump - are down sharply this year.
